Short sellers have significantly increased their positions against SpaceX in recent weeks, with bearish bets now accounting for approximately 32% of the company’s publicly tradable float, according to data from S3 Partners. The positioning represents a notable escalation in skepticism surrounding the space exploration company’s valuation as it approaches several important milestones as a newly public entity.
About 206 million SpaceX shares are currently sold short, translating to roughly $25 billion in notional bearish wagers, S3 Partners estimates. The figure marks a sharp increase from approximately 185 million shares, or 29% of the float, just one week earlier. The surge becomes even more striking when compared to levels from a month ago, when short interest stood at an estimated 40 million shares, representing only 5% to 7% of the float.
Matthew Unterman, head of research at S3, indicated that short sellers appear to be positioning ahead of key upcoming events. The company announced Tuesday that it will release its first quarterly earnings report as a public company after U.S. markets close on August 4, providing investors with their first detailed look at SpaceX’s financial performance since its initial public offering.
Musk Issues Warning to Short Sellers
Elon Musk addressed the growing short interest directly in a post on X, issuing a stark warning to investors betting against the company. Musk predicted that firms maintaining significant short positions in SpaceX over time face very low survival probability, and referenced his previous assertion that SpaceX will be worth more than Earth if the company achieves its goals.
The heightened short interest reflects broader uncertainty as investors weigh SpaceX’s long-term potential against its current valuation and the prospect of additional share supply hitting the market when lock-up restrictions expire. Those restrictions typically prevent insiders and early investors from selling shares for a specified period following an IPO.
Bulls and Bears Stake Out Positions
The debate over SpaceX’s valuation centers on competing narratives about the company’s growth trajectory. Supporters point to SpaceX’s dominant position in commercial launch services, the ongoing expansion of its Starlink satellite internet business, and its ambitions in artificial intelligence. Skeptics, meanwhile, question whether the company’s stock price already reflects too much optimistic future growth, leaving limited upside for new investors.
SpaceX shares traded around $124 on Tuesday, gaining approximately 3% and breaking a seven-session losing streak. The uptick came after analysts at Macquarie reiterated an outperform rating on the stock and encouraged investors to take advantage of recent weakness. Despite the Tuesday gain, shares remain below the company’s $135 IPO price, reflecting the sharp pullback that followed the initial public listing.
The upcoming earnings report and subsequent lock-up expirations are expected to serve as critical tests for both bullish and bearish theses. The earnings release will provide transparency into SpaceX’s revenue streams, profitability, and operational metrics that have remained largely private throughout the company’s history. Lock-up expirations, meanwhile, could introduce meaningful additional supply to the market if insiders and early backers choose to sell shares.
Source: www.cnbc.com — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/21/bets-against-spacex-grow-to-32percent-of-float-as-elon-musk-warns-short-sellers-wont-survive.html
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