Football season hasn’t kicked off yet, but Piper Sandler is already calling a win for Robinhood’s prediction market business. In a Wednesday note, analyst Patrick Moley projected that the start of the NFL and college football seasons could deliver a significant boost to the brokerage’s event-contract revenue, following explosive volume growth during this summer’s World Cup.
Moley pointed to the World Cup as a telling preview. Despite soccer’s global appeal, Robinhood’s user base is heavily US-centric, and football’s domestic popularity far outstrips soccer’s. That gap leads Moley to view the World Cup volumes as a leading indicator for what’s ahead. “The NFL/NCAA Football season should be a significant catalyst for HOOD’s 3Q26 and 4Q26 prediction market revenue,” he wrote.
Rothera’s role
A key part of the bullish thesis is Rothera, the prediction markets joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna that launched in June. The derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has now received CFTC approval to offer football contracts covering wins and spreads, according to Piper Sandler, citing confirmation from Robinhood management.
Since Rothera’s debut, Moley estimates that roughly 23% of prediction market volume has shifted to the new platform from Kalshi, a rival that Robinhood also displays to its users. That migration has accelerated the decline in Robinhood’s share of Kalshi’s volumes. During last year’s football season, Robinhood users represented between 22% and 30% of all volume traded on Kalshi, but that share has since fallen to the mid-single digits as Kalshi has pursued its own user acquisition.
Strong momentum
The transition comes amid a broader surge in prediction market activity at Robinhood. Average monthly volumes between June and August grew 88% compared with the January-to-May period, driven largely by World Cup engagement, Moley noted.
To project Robinhood’s prediction market revenue for the second half of the year, Piper Sandler used Kalshi as a proxy. The firm’s analysts expect that from September through December, Robinhood users will trade roughly 29.7 billion event contracts and generate around $320 million in revenue — or $960 million annualized.
Football has historically been a dominant driver for Kalshi, accounting for 42% of its total volume in the 2025 season. That translated to roughly $14 billion in NFL and NCAAF trading volume on the platform. However, Moley doesn’t expect football-related contracts on Kalshi to dominate total volume this time, given the broadening range of contracts beyond major sports. “Major sports made up just 54% of Kalshi’s mix in August 2026, down sharply from a high of 83% in November 2025,” the note said.
Rating and price target
Piper Sandler’s rosy outlook led Moley to lift his earnings per share estimates for Robinhood by 5% for 2026 and 7% for 2027. He also raised his price target to $145 from $135, implying roughly 35% upside from Wednesday’s close, and reiterated an overweight rating on the stock.
The analyst’s confidence suggests that prediction markets — still a relatively new revenue stream for Robinhood — are becoming an increasingly important part of the company’s growth story as football season gets underway.
Source: www.cnbc.com — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/03/piper-sandler-expects-robinhood-to-start-football-season-with-a-win.html
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Do your own research and consult a licensed professional before making financial decisions.
