Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary cautioned Thursday that airfares could climb sharply if oil prices stay high, as the surging cost of jet fuel continues to squeeze carriers across the industry.
Speaking to reporters ahead of the budget airline’s annual general meeting, O’Leary said pricing should come in “very modestly down” for the second quarter, which runs from July through September, according to comments reported by Reuters. Beyond that, the outlook darkens.
“The December and March quarters are entirely up in the air,” he said. “If oil prices remain high into next year, I think there will be a significant uplift in airfares, and we would hope to avoid that.”
CNBC said it had reached out to Ryanair for comment on the remarks.
Oil and jet fuel keep climbing
Crude prices pushed higher Thursday as concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East and the risk to energy supplies kept Brent crude above $100 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 1.4% to $97.4 per barrel.
The broader move in oil has fed directly into jet fuel costs, a critical input for airlines. Jet fuel stood at $171 per barrel for the week ending Sept. 4, up 90% from the prior year’s average, according to the International Air Transport Association’s Jet Fuel Price Monitor.
That pressure has been building for months. In April, O’Leary told CNBC that weaker European airlines would likely see some “failures” later in the year as jet fuel became harder to absorb.
At the time, Ryanair said it had hedged 80% of its jet fuel needs for the summer period. Looking further out, the carrier is hedged at $67 per barrel for 2027, while for 2028 it has covered only 15% of its requirements at $85 per barrel.
A profit hit and a promise on pricing
Ryanair’s first-quarter profit fell 34%, a decline the company attributed to delayed consumer bookings after the start of the U.S.-Iran war on Feb. 28. O’Leary said then that first-quarter ticket prices were lowered because consumers were anxious about booking amid the Middle East conflict.
In April, he struck a reassuring tone on costs for travelers: “We can guarantee people there’ll be no price increases, no fuel hedging, no fuel surge levy surcharges, regardless of what happens to summer supply.”
Thursday’s comments marked a shift in emphasis, with the carrier now flagging the possibility of higher fares should elevated oil prices persist into next year. For now, Ryanair is holding to its expectation of slightly lower pricing in the current quarter, with the winter and spring booking periods still unsettled.
The airline’s hedging position gives it some insulation from near-term swings in fuel costs, but the portion of its needs covered at fixed prices thins out considerably in later years, leaving more exposure if crude remains expensive.
Source: www.cnbc.com — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/ryanair-airfare-prices-oil-iran-war.html
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