Bitcoin’s sharp rally this week—up more than 20%—has lifted the cryptocurrency to its highest level since May. But traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi are betting the gains will mostly stall by year-end, with the digital asset finishing 2026 near its current price.
Based on an average of Kalshi’s contracts, speculators estimate bitcoin will trade at roughly $75,000 at midnight on Jan. 1, 2027. That would represent a slight decline from current levels, where bitcoin was last trading above $77,000.
The contracts on Kalshi ask traders to wager “yes” or “no” on whether bitcoin will trade within various $5,000 price ranges at year-end. The outcomes are determined using bitcoin price data from CF Benchmarks.
What’s fueling the rally
Bitcoin’s surge this week has been driven by two main catalysts, according to CNBC. The first is an intervention by the U.S. Treasury aimed at easing a bond-market sell-off, which in turn relieved pressure on risk assets. The second is a White House event where President Donald Trump, crypto executives, and regulators urged Congress to pass the market structure Clarity Act proposal.
Before Wednesday, Kalshi traders had expected bitcoin to end the year around $66,000. But the recent rally has markedly improved the outlook for where the flagship cryptocurrency will close out 2026.
Still, the latest forecast from Kalshi traders implies that the upside from here may be limited—if anything, a modest pullback from current levels is the more likely scenario in their view.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
Source: www.cnbc.com — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/21/kalshi-traders-say-bitcoin-rally-wont-go-much-higher-by-end-of-2026.html
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Do your own research and consult a licensed professional before making financial decisions.
