The United Nations issued a stark warning on Thursday that the ongoing El Niño event is intensifying into a “supersized” phenomenon, with impacts expected to persist until February 2027. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the climate pattern now poses a serious threat to communities and economies across the globe, with increased risks of floods, droughts, and extreme heat in many countries.
Celeste Saulo, the WMO’s secretary general, said the event “has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world.” She noted that disruption and devastation from droughts and floods are already visible, and these effects are expected to worsen as El Niño strengthens.
Regional impacts already unfolding
The immediate consequences are hitting hard in parts of Asia-Pacific and Latin America, but the ripple effects are global. In Central America, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador are battling erratic weather and drought conditions—linked by an Oxfam report in August to El Niño—that have caused severe crop losses. Indonesia is simultaneously dealing with devastating wildfires, while India is experiencing a weaker monsoon season that is expected to hurt the growth of key commodities including rice, sugar, cotton, and soybeans.
Peru has reported a “devastating blow” to its anchovy fishery, a crucial source of livestock feed. These regional disruptions are feeding into global markets, with commodities such as corn, cocoa, and coffee, as well as energy supplies, expected to feel the strain.
Broader economic and energy risks
The WMO’s warning extends beyond agriculture. Extreme weather is anticipated to create unpredictable effects on energy generation and demand. Hydropower, wind, and solar output could all be disrupted, as could oil and gas production, refining operations, and mining activities. This adds another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile global energy landscape.
UN Secretary General António Guterres said on Thursday that El Niño is being “supersized before our eyes.” He described the world as being in the “danger zone of extreme weather” and stressed the urgency of climate action. “The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race,” Guterres said.
Unprecedented ocean warmth
The WMO’s data points to remarkable ocean temperatures. An El Niño is typically defined by sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rising 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. Current readings are far above that threshold. In July, sea surface temperatures were more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal, and they ranged between 2.2 and 2.6 degrees Celsius above normal from late July to mid-August.
Even more concerning is the warmth beneath the surface. Subsurface ocean temperatures were more than 8 degrees Celsius above average during July and early August, which the WMO described as “even more exceptional warmth.” These conditions suggest the event has deep energy reserves that could sustain its intensity.
El Niño, which translates from Spanish as “little boy,” is a naturally occurring climate pattern that alternates with the cooler La Niña, or “little girl,” every two to seven years. This cycle means the current event, while significant, is part of a broader natural variability. Nevertheless, the WMO’s warning underscores the increasing severity and economic stakes tied to these phenomena.
For now, governments and businesses across affected regions are bracing for more disruption as the event is expected to persist into 2027. The global community faces a critical window to prepare for the cascading effects on food security, energy stability, and economic activity.
Source: www.cnbc.com — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/03/supersized-el-nino-un-economy.html
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