The major oil companies are preparing to unveil what analysts anticipate will be stunning earnings this week, with profit surges potentially exceeding 700 percent at some refiners. Yet even as these giants report historic results, Wall Street strategists are directing attention toward a different set of opportunities in the energy sector.
ExxonMobil and Chevron are both scheduled to report earnings on July 31st, with Shell preceding them on July 30th. Marathon Petroleum and ConocoPhillips will follow on August 4th and 6th, respectively. According to CNBC, oil analysts are forecasting profit increases that include a doubling or tripling at the supermajors and a more than 700 percent surge at Marathon.
Shifting Preferences Among the Majors
Bank of America recently designated Chevron as a top pick among integrated oil companies and refiners, praising CEO Mike Wirth’s strategic moves in Venezuela, Iraq, and other markets. The bank characterized these efforts as “refilling the funnel” of future opportunities.
In contrast, Bank of America downgraded ExxonMobil back to neutral after a previous upgrade, suggesting investors should consider “cashing in the call option.” The implication is that much of the near-term upside in XOM shares may have already been realized.
Renewable Energy Storage Gets Attention
Citigroup analyst Vikram Bagri recently upgraded two energy storage companies to buy ratings, though both carry high-risk designations. Fluence received a $24 price target, while Energy Vault Holdings was assigned a $5 target.
Bagri acknowledged that Fluence will likely miss consensus expectations in upcoming earnings but described those expectations as unreasonable. He recommended investors focus instead on the company’s expanding storage business and the potential for its first hyperscaler customer order in the near term. The analyst also cited positive developments from a recent nodule price increase out of the European Union.
For Energy Vault, Bagri highlighted benefits from lower capital costs through new financing, growth in recurring investment income, and an expanding customer base reaching into markets like Australia. The primary risk he identified was intensifying competition in the increasingly crowded battery storage market.
AI Infrastructure Driving New Opportunities
Baird analyst Luke Junk identified two companies positioned to benefit from AI-driven power infrastructure demands. Forgent Power Solutions received an outperform rating with a $55 target. According to Junk, Forgent is a structurally important supplier of electrical equipment that has turned lead times into a competitive advantage through vertical integration. The company carries a backlog of $2.4 billion.
Junk also rated nVent Electric PLC, a British company spun off from Pentair eight years ago, as outperform with a $188 target, suggesting roughly 23 percent upside. The analyst emphasized nVent’s position in the liquid cooling space, noting that much of the investment thesis centers on more efficient cooling and lower power bills for data centers. The company also operates a substation power business.
Nuclear Gains Fresh Support
UBS analyst George Eadie upgraded uranium producer Cameco to buy following recent share price weakness. Eadie attributed the selling to broader market sentiment and AI-related volatility rather than any fundamental deterioration in Cameco’s business. He noted that the uranium bull case has only strengthened this year, with long-term contract pricing reaching record highs.
Geopolitical Volatility Continues
Oil prices have experienced dramatic swings, moving from over $90 per barrel back to the high $60s before briefly rebounding above $90 following renewed tensions in the Middle East. A missile attack by Iranian militants on U.S. forces in Jordan was repelled without damage, but the incident underscored persistent geopolitical risks.
JPMorgan analyst Natasha Kaneva suggested the market appears reluctant to repeatedly reprice geopolitical risk because investors view a prolonged stalemate as unlikely. Prediction markets on Kalshi show traders assigning a 65 percent probability that WTI crude will end the year at $75 or higher, but only a 32 percent chance of prices reaching $90 or above.
The expected surge in oil company profits is substantial enough that it may attract significant political attention, according to market observers. As the energy landscape continues to evolve amid geopolitical uncertainty and the AI infrastructure buildout, investors are being presented with opportunities beyond the traditional supermajors.
Source: www.cnbc.com — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/30/the-oil-majors-are-about-to-report-booming-profits-these-smaller-stocks-may-be-better-buys.html
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