Tesla is approaching its quarterly earnings report with options traders bracing for volatility. Current pricing in the options market suggests the electric vehicle maker could see its largest post-earnings move in a year when it reports results Wednesday after the market close.
According to CNBC, at-the-money options are implying a 5.76% move in either direction, marking the biggest anticipated swing since traders priced in a 6% move last October. If realized, it would represent the largest actual post-earnings move since July of last year.
The sentiment heading into the report appears decidedly bullish based on options activity. Through midday Tuesday, traders had purchased 244,000 call options compared to just 116,000 puts, with calls accounting for more than two-thirds of the total premium traded on Tesla contracts.
The most active positioning centered on near-term bullish bets. The three most actively traded contracts by volume were all calls, with the heaviest dollar flow directed toward 380-strike calls expiring Friday. Traders committed more than $15 million to these contracts at approximately $11 each, a position that would require Tesla shares to climb roughly 3% by week’s end to become profitable.
History Suggests Caution
Despite the anticipation in the options market, Tesla’s recent earnings history tells a more subdued story. Over the past four quarters, the stock has posted a median move of just 3.5% on earnings days, according to CBOE data. That track record of muted reactions stands in contrast to the heightened expectations currently priced into options.
The disconnect between implied and realized volatility could reflect broader uncertainty surrounding Tesla’s business trajectory and competitive position in the evolving electric vehicle market.
SpaceX Factor Looms Large
Adding another layer of complexity for investors is the upcoming SpaceX earnings report scheduled for August 4, the space company’s first since its initial public offering last month. The options market is pricing in an even more dramatic 12% move in either direction for SpaceX shares following that report.
“If you want to be aggressive you could argue [Tesla is] hanging on support and take the long side, which I am longer term, but it’s more or less been rangebound since the start of the year,” Gianni Di Poce, instructor at TheoTrade, told CNBC. “The whole SpaceX thing is weighing on it, people are trying to figure out which to own and if they’re going to merge.”
The relationship between the two Musk-led companies has become a meaningful consideration for traders. Following its June IPO, SpaceX shares surged toward a $2 trillion valuation before pulling back sharply. The company now carries a market capitalization just under $1.7 trillion, slightly ahead of Tesla’s $1.4 trillion valuation.
Speculation about a potential merger between the two companies appears to be influencing trading patterns in both stocks, adding an element of uncertainty that extends beyond Tesla’s core automotive business fundamentals.
For investors watching Wednesday’s report, the question is whether Tesla can deliver results compelling enough to justify the outsized move that options traders have priced in, or whether the stock will once again disappoint volatility expectations with a more modest reaction.
Source: www.cnbc.com — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/21/tesla-shares-poised-for-biggest-earnings-move-in-a-year.html
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