The U.S. is facing record measles cases and declining childhood vaccination rates, but a new survey suggests the driving force isn’t widespread anti-vaccine sentiment — it’s confusion.
According to a KFF survey released in July, fewer than 1 in 10 adults firmly believe common vaccine myths. Yet at least half of respondents fall into a gray area, saying claims about vaccine safety and effectiveness are either “probably true” or “probably false.”
“What’s more true is a lot of people are confused,” Drew Altman, KFF CEO and founding president, said in an interview. “They don’t know who to believe, they don’t know what to believe, and that means that a lot of America is stuck in the middle, unsure and they’re up for grabs.”
That uncertainty could pose a growing public health hazard as the Trump administration reshapes federal vaccine policy. Earlier this month, Trump linked the measles-mumps-rubella vaccine to autism without evidence, echoing a debunked claim that has persisted for decades. He also called for splitting the routine childhood immunization into separate shots.
The ‘Stuck in the Middle’ Majority
Public health scientist Jess Steier, founder and CEO of Unbiased Science, said most Americans still vaccinate themselves and their children, but even small dips in coverage can allow highly contagious viruses like measles to spread.
“Uncertainty can resolve once people have time, information and access,” Steier added, noting that people with questions about vaccines can be reached through clear, evidence-based information and conversations with trusted healthcare providers.
Steier’s organization developed a framework called LANDS to categorize vaccine-hesitant individuals. The five groups are: “Lost” people confused by conflicting information, “Anxious” people who fear side effects, “Naturalists” who prefer natural immunity, “Distrusters” who are suspicious of institutions, and “Shruggers” who don’t see vaccines as a priority.
Dr. Lori Handy, associate director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, cautions that people don’t fit neatly into these buckets.
“What we actually find is that individuals don’t bucket as nicely as we want,” Handy said, citing a combination of social, religious, access factors and who appears on their social media feeds.
Record Measles Cases and Falling Vaccination Rates
CDC data released Friday shows 2,777 confirmed measles cases and 36 new outbreaks across 47 jurisdictions this year — a 35-year high that surpasses 2025’s record. More than 93% of infected individuals are unvaccinated or have unknown vaccination status.
Childhood vaccination rates have slipped to about 92% for kindergartners, while nonmedical exemptions hit a record 4.2% during the 2025-2026 school year, representing an estimated 155,000 children.
Handy noted that hesitancy around the MMR vaccine dates back to a retracted study linking it to autism. Over the last two to three years, political leaders have amplified that skepticism.
Trump signed an executive order this month suggesting the MMR shot be split, falsely claiming the combined version is “quite lethal” and tying it to autism. Such rhetoric, Handy said, makes parents less likely to vaccinate their children when they see authority figures questioning the shots.
“All of a sudden, vaccine science has become a political issue or a partisan issue in a way that we’ve never seen before,” Handy said.
One 19-year-old from Pennsylvania, who asked to remain anonymous, said his family’s skepticism — driven by misinformation, distrust of healthcare and government, and religious beliefs — kept him unvaccinated. After researching on his own, he decided to start getting vaccinated and said he’s “fairly certain” he’ll get caught up on major vaccines in the coming months.
Health experts emphasize that while confusion is widespread, it can be resolved — if people have time, information and access to trusted guidance.
Source: www.cnbc.com — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/21/why-vaccination-rates-are-falling-in-the-us.html
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