Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has come to a near standstill. Over the weekend, just five cargo ships traversed the critical oil passage on Saturday, and no vessels were registered to pass through on Sunday, according to data from Kpler cited by Reuters. That compares with 31 vessel transits during the previous weekend.
The sharp drop-off comes as the 60-day ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is due to expire on Monday, with no official negotiations or agreement in sight. Traffic had already fallen to a three-month low last week, with a five-day average of 13 transits on Tuesday — the lowest level since May 12, according to a CNBC analysis of Kpler data.
Overall, shipping through the Strait is down 90% since the war began on February 28. The waterway normally carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil, averaging about 130 vessel transits per day.
Parash Jain, HSBC’s shipping expert, told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe on Monday that investors should accept that “chaos is the norm” for the industry and build that into their base assumptions.
Oil prices edge lower
Despite the disruption, oil prices inched down on Monday. International benchmark Brent crude futures slipped 0.15% to $88.45 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.74% to $81.79.
The subdued price action may reflect hopes that the ceasefire could be extended, though there is little sign of progress. Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said the two sides do “not have anything like a ceasefire,” according to quotes from Iranian outlet Shahrara News on Saturday.
“No negotiations have been held between the United States and us at this time…Qatar and Pakistan are exchanging messages between the parties and are in contact with us, but this does not mean negotiations,” Araghchi said.
Rhetoric heats up
U.S. President Donald Trump claimed last week that “pretty soon I’ll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States.” Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi pushed back in a post on X on Friday, insisting the Strait will remain “Iranian” and will only be closed and opened “under Iran’s command.”
With the ceasefire now expired and no talks underway, the risk of renewed conflict — and further disruption to global oil flows — remains elevated, leaving shippers and traders to navigate an increasingly volatile environment.
Source: www.cnbc.com — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/17/us-iran-war-trump-hormuz.html
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Do your own research and consult a licensed professional before making financial decisions.
