A new poll has laid bare the extraordinarily unusual political position of Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman, whose support among his own party has collapsed even as Republicans in his home state embrace him.
Veteran political analyst Chris Cillizza, writing on his So What Substack, said he had never seen numbers like those in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll. The survey found Fetterman’s approval rating among Democrats sits at just 20% — the lowest of any Democratic elected official in the country, according to Cillizza. His unfavorable rating among Pennsylvania Democrats is a striking 68%.
Meanwhile, the same poll shows Republicans in the Keystone State adore the senator. Fetterman draws 79% approval from GOP voters, with 35% rating him very favorably and 48% somewhat favorably.
A Party Reversal
The numbers mark a stunning reversal for a politician once hailed as a liberal successor to Sen. Bernie Sanders. The media cast Fetterman as a progressive savior when he entered the Senate, but his ironclad support for Israel and votes to confirm several of President Trump’s Cabinet nominees have inflamed Democratic voters.
Fetterman himself has acknowledged the confusion, telling NewsNation’s Chris Cuomo in March: “I, for some strange way, I am more popular with Republicans, which is, it’s confusing because I vote, I vote in the 90s [percentage-wise] Dem line, and I didn’t, and I haven’t vote[d] for the big ticket Trump ones like ‘big, beautiful bill’ or SAVE Act.” He added, “I am guilty of being a very proud supporter of Israel, and then I do support [Operation] Epic Fury.”
His voting record, in fact, remains broadly Democratic. Fetterman votes with Senate Democrats roughly 90% of the time on major procedural and legislative roll calls. Conservative advocacy groups like Heritage Action assign him a score of 0%, reflecting his fundamental alignment with standard Democratic positions.
To observers like PJ Media’s Rick Moran, Fetterman resembles a throwback to the Democratic Party of Hubert Humphrey, Mike Mansfield, and Birch Bayh in the 1960s — a party strong on organized labor, muscular foreign policy, and small business. He would not have been a Republican then, Moran argues, and would not be one now.
Primary Problem
But whatever his ideological kinship with an older Democratic tradition, Fetterman’s current numbers suggest he cannot win a Democratic primary for Senate in Pennsylvania in 2028. Moran writes that “a potted plant” running as a Democrat could beat him.
Several Democrats are already mentioned as potential candidates — former Rep. Conor Lamb, Reps. Brendan Boyle, Summer Lee, and Chris Deluzio among them — and Moran contends any of them would defeat Fetterman in a primary.
Fetterman, Moran notes, “definitely knows it.” That leaves the senator with three real options heading into 2028: run for president, likely as an independent or third-party candidate; switch parties and run as an independent who caucuses with Republicans; or retire.
Retirement is a plausible outcome, given reporting by NBC News in 2025 that Fetterman has “often neglected the duties of his job since being elected,” rarely making noncampaign appearances in Pennsylvania and regularly missing committee hearings, bill mark-ups, and votes. According to GovTrack, he missed 77 of 381 votes, placing him in the 90th to 99th percentile among senators for missed votes during each three-month stretch in that period. His committee attendance is spotty at best. After battling depression in 2023, Moran suggests, he may have reached a point where stepping away appeals.
Party Switch? Lessons from Specter
Cillizza believes Fetterman will run in 2028, but Moran doubts he’ll want to endure the humiliation of a primary loss unless his approval can climb into the high 30s.
The prospect of a party switch is real but complicated. Moran argues Fetterman is more likely to leave the Democratic Party and become an independent who caucuses with Republicans than to formally join the GOP. In practical Senate terms, that distinction matters little — if Fetterman votes for a Republican as Senate leader, that is all that counts.
Pennsylvania history offers a cautionary tale. In 2009, Republican Sen. Arlen Specter switched to the Democratic Party to avoid a tough GOP primary. He lost the Democratic primary anyway to Rep. Joe Sestak, who then lost the general election to Republican Pat Toomey.
For Fetterman, the lesson is clear: there will likely be a price for leaving the Democratic fold. How high a price will determine whether he ultimately runs as an independent or not.
Source: pjmedia.com — https://pjmedia.com/rick-moran/2026/09/02/john-fetterman-could-win-another-term-in-the-senate-as-long-as-he-can-win-the-democratic-primary-n4956815
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