As the midterms barrel toward Election Day, most of the political world has its eyes fixed on Texas, Georgia, Michigan, and Ohio. But a new poll out of New Hampshire suggests the granite state may deserve a second look.
The survey, conducted by the University of New Hampshire and 7NEWS, shows former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu leading his likely general-election opponent, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, 45% to 43% in the race for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat. That’s a statistical tie, but the direction matters: just three months earlier, the same poll had Pappas ahead by three points — a five-point swing toward the GOP over the course of a single summer.
A Familiar Name in a State Trending Less Blue
Sununu is hardly an unknown quantity in New Hampshire politics. He won a statewide Senate race in 2002, served one term, and lost his seat to the retiring Jeanne Shaheen in 2008. Before that, he spent six years in the U.S. House representing New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District — the same seat Pappas has held since 2019. His father and brother both served as the state’s governor, cementing the Sununu name in Granite State political lore.
The race also benefits from being an open-seat contest, since Shaheen is retiring after this term. That combination — a recognizable Republican with a prior statewide win, running in an open race — is the kind of setup that can produce an upset when the national spotlight is elsewhere.
Two Very Different Campaigns
Pappas is running the kind of campaign Democrats typically run when defending turf that’s become less reliably blue. He’s positioning himself as a champion of the middle class, pledging to lower the cost of living and protect public education, Medicaid, and Social Security.
Sununu’s pitch is more straightforwardly conservative: cut taxes, slash regulations, and “make government work again.” It’s a message that has resonated before in a state known for its independence and fiscal restraint.
National Republican super PACs are taking notice. According to a report from WBUR, they’re investing millions of dollars to boost Sununu’s candidacy — a sign that GOP strategists see genuine opportunity here.
Why It Matters
Conventional wisdom has treated New Hampshire as a blue state for two decades, and for good reason — it has voted Democratic in recent presidential cycles and hasn’t sent a Republican to the Senate since Sununu’s 2008 loss. But if the political environment were as hostile to Republicans as the prevailing narrative suggests, Sununu wouldn’t be within striking distance this late in the campaign.
The question isn’t whether Republicans can compete in New Hampshire; the poll suggests they already are. The real question is whether anyone outside the state is paying attention. With an open seat, a well-known candidate, and millions in outside money flowing in, this overlooked race could be one of the flips that defines the 2026 midterms.
Source: pjmedia.com — https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2026/08/27/the-gop-is-poised-to-flip-this-overlooked-blue-state-n4956605
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