For decades, Texas Democrats have dreamed of a breakout Senate win, but that dream has repeatedly turned into a mirage. Now, with the Cook Political Report reclassifying the Texas race as a toss-up, the party is once again allowing itself a flicker of optimism — even as skeptical observers note that such hopes have been dashed before.
This year’s Democratic standard-bearer is Rep. James Talarico, a former seminary student who has already courted controversy with his comment that “God is non-binary.” Polls show Talarico either tied with or narrowly ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, whose legal troubles — including an impeachment by the Republican-controlled House and a securities scandal from a decade ago — have weighed on his campaign. The Cook Political Report’s move of the race from “lean Republican” to “toss-up” has electrified Democrats eager to break a losing streak that dates to Lloyd Bentsen’s 1988 reelection.
But Texas Democrats have been here before. In 2018, Beto O’Rourke — hailed as “the next JFK” with a rock star’s charisma — drew adoring media coverage and led in polls by as much as five points, only to lose to Sen. Ted Cruz. O’Rourke later flamed out in the 2020 presidential primary and was routed in the 2022 gubernatorial race by Greg Abbott. The lesson, writes PJ Media’s Rick Moran, is that Texas Democrats consistently overperform in polls and then, on Election Day, “voters return to reality and elect a Republican.”
Iowa Turns Competitive
Meanwhile, the retirement of Republican Sen. Joni Ernst has opened up an Iowa seat that Republicans had initially expected to keep comfortably. Rep. Ashley Hinson, a strong fundraiser and recruit, finds herself in a tighter-than-expected contest against Democrat Josh Turek, a state representative. Cook has shifted the Iowa race from “lean GOP” to “toss-up” as well, citing economic headwinds — tariffs, high diesel costs, and inflation — that have turned political winds against the GOP in the Hawkeye State.
Cook’s Jessica Taylor said the two ratings changes reflect a Senate battle that is now a toss-up overall, though Republicans may retain “the slimmest of advantages.” She pointed to Paxton’s negatives and to uncertainty about which Republican outside groups will invest in the Texas race, especially after Senate Republicans spent heavily to back the man Paxton beat in the primary, four-term incumbent John Cornyn.
Third-Party Complication
Taylor also highlighted a quirk in the Texas race: a libertarian candidate on the ballot could siphon votes from Republicans who find Paxton unpalatable but are unwilling to vote for Talarico. That could indirectly boost the Democrat, she noted.
Still, Talarico has his own liabilities. Taylor said Republicans “will — and will exploit” his comments about gender and his “God is non-binary” remark. And Paxton, for all his baggage, may be in a stronger position than Cruz was in 2018. It has been 32 years since a Democrat won any statewide race in Texas.
Moran remains deeply skeptical, comparing the situation to Lucy pulling away the football just as Charlie Brown is about to kick. “Talarico is going to have to show a lot more grit and an instinct for the jugular to convince me he has a realistic shot at beating Paxton,” he wrote.
This article is based on reporting by PJ Media’s Rick Moran.
Source: pjmedia.com — https://pjmedia.com/rick-moran/2026/08/21/dems-believe-they-can-take-iowa-and-texas-senate-seats-are-they-delusional-n4956377
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