Manipulating election prediction markets may be surprisingly cheap, according to new research shared exclusively with CNBC. The Anti-Corruption Data Collective found that a bet as small as $3,500 — the maximum personal campaign contribution allowed under federal law — can move 97% of midterm-related prediction markets by five cents or more.
The findings raise fresh questions about whether individuals can sway these increasingly popular markets to influence real-world outcomes, the group said.
“A manipulated price can ripple through the information ecosystem as if it reflected real momentum,” the report reads. “Not only do the conditions exist in the majority of markets, it may have already happened.”
Cheap to move underdog markets
The Anti-Corruption Data Collective, which works with journalists, data analysts, academics and policy advocates, examined 1,094 markets priced at five cents or less. It found that 806 of those markets could be moved five cents for less than $100.
Larger moves are not much pricier, the report found: 94% of markets would shift 10 cents under a $1,000 bet, and most would move 25 cents after bets of $25,000.
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have surged in popularity ahead of November’s midterm elections, offering yes-or-no contracts on thousands of political outcomes. Unlike polls, which sample voter opinions, these markets let participants trade directly on the likelihood of events.
Specific cases on Polymarket
The report identified 353 instances on Polymarket during this election cycle where one or two wallets moved a market by five cents or more. Of those, 211 stayed at the moved price, 62 continued moving, and 80 snapped back to the original position.
One detailed example involves the Texas Senate Republican primary. In December, a single wallet bet $1,760 on Polymarket, pushing eventual nominee Ken Paxton’s contract down from 55 cents to 50 cents. Fourteen hours later, another wallet spent $1,240, lifting Paxton from 52 cents to 63 cents. Four days after that upward push, Newsweek published a story referencing Polymarket showing Paxton in the lead. The price held in the sixties for six weeks before dropping below 55 cents after a push from a different wallet.
On Feb. 7, the report says three wallets on Polymarket shifted two markets — one on Paxton winning the nomination and another on Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas. Two wallets bet $23,953 to push Hunt up 10 cents, while similar moves were observed on Kalshi. Over the next two hours, another Polymarket wallet spent $38,830, pushing Paxton down eight cents. Hunt’s price slid back, but two days later several wallets pushed it up again on both platforms.
The next day, 17 wallets — including automated ones — pushed Paxton’s price down, but prices later reverted as public polling continued to show Paxton leading.
Manipulation or unlucky bets?
The report acknowledges that the large trades could have been “unlucky risky bettors believing their bet and position would be profitable rather than active manipulators.” But it notes that routine media quoting of prediction market prices “for the Texas race provided an opening for perception buying that also explains these large trades.”
Prediction markets have drawn scrutiny in Washington, with some lawmakers warning they are susceptible to manipulation. Critics have also targeted markets tied to elections, deaths of prominent people and wars.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
Source: www.cnbc.com — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/09/prediction-markets-election-kalshi-polymarket.html
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