The June employment report, set for release Thursday, may receive an unexpected boost from an unlikely source: the World Cup. Goldman Sachs economists estimate the international soccer tournament could contribute roughly 40,000 jobs to the monthly payroll count.
According to the Dow Jones consensus, economists expect nonfarm payrolls to show a gain of 115,000 positions for June, down from the solid 172,000 increase recorded in May. However, Goldman Sachs believes the actual figure could reach 140,000, thanks in part to temporary hiring related to the tournament being hosted across 11 U.S. cities.
The investment bank’s analysis draws on private data from Homebase, a payroll services firm that works with small businesses. That data reveals an interesting divergence between World Cup host cities and the rest of the country. While overall hiring appeared weaker in June, host cities saw their employment decline by just 1.2% year-over-year, compared to a 3.5% drop in non-host cities.
Hospitality Sector Sees Notable Gains
The Homebase data also showed hospitality hiring jumped 9.5%, a surge Goldman economists Ronnie Walker and Jessica Rindels attribute to World Cup-related demand. The tournament’s impact should be most visible in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and trade and transportation sectors, according to their analysis.
“Our historical analysis suggests that the World Cup could boost payroll growth by 40k in June, and that its impact should be concentrated in the leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and trade and transportation sectors,” Walker and Rindels wrote in a research note.
Even with the anticipated World Cup bump, Goldman’s 140,000 forecast would still represent a slowdown from May’s pace. However, it would mark a dramatic improvement over June 2025, when the economy shed 20,000 jobs.
Historical Revision Patterns
Goldman also noted that June employment figures tend to show an upward bias in their initial readings. Over the past four years, the preliminary June payroll count has been revised lower in subsequent estimates, suggesting Thursday’s report could face similar adjustments in the months ahead.
The interplay between major sporting events and employment data highlights the complexity of interpreting monthly labor market reports, where one-time factors can temporarily mask or amplify underlying trends. For policymakers and market participants trying to gauge the economy’s true momentum, distinguishing between temporary boosts and sustained job growth becomes especially important.
Source: www.cnbc.com — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/01/world-cup-could-boost-the-june-jobs-report-by-40000-goldman-estimates.html
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